Tuesday, 1 October 2013

US Govt. Shutdown, Debt Ceiling and it's implications on Stock Markets

It’s Implications on Stock Markets

US Government Shut-Down on 1st October 2013

Debt Ceiling on 17th October 2013


US Government Shutdowns: It is a political situation in which the government stops providing for all but "essential" services such as police, fire fighting, military, agriculture, etc. So unless Congress raises the federal borrowing cap (the legal limit on how much debt the US government can pile up), some of the government would shut down on October 1 as it will run out of money to pay its bills.

Debt Ceiling: The US government will reach the limit at which it can borrow money to pay its bills, the so-called debt ceiling.

Haggling and grandstanding went on into the night, with hope of a last-minute deal, but no agreement could be reached. With no deal on emergency funding for the Government, it was allowed to run out of money as the fiscal year ended. The sticking point remained Republican opposition to the funding of the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama’s health care reform. The Republicans want the law amended and delayed.

Stocks and other asset classes now have to negotiate a tricky few weeks of new territory. After Monday’s midnight deadline, Congress now has to agree to raise the United States’ $16.7 trillion debt ceiling by October 17 so America can avoid defaulting on its debt.

The government shutdown and threat of a default on the federal debt reminds many investors of 2011 when a similar stand-off in Washington led to the United States losing its AAA credit rating and helped prompt a stock market correction.

The US federal government has shut down on 17 occasions since 1976.

A three-week shutdown would slow the economy's annual growth rate in the October-December quarter by up to 0.9 percentage point, estimates. If so, the growth rate next quarter would be a scant 1.6 per cent compared with the 2.5 per cent that many economists now forecast.

What if Congress can't agree to raise the cap in time? It could be disastrous. The government might be forced to immediately slash spending by 32 per cent, estimates. The government could miss interest payments on Treasuries, triggering a first-ever default by the U.S. government. U.S. Treasuries are held by banks, governments and individuals worldwide. Ultimately, a prolonged default could lead to a global financial crisis.

The last major fight over the borrowing cap, in the summer of 2011, wasn't resolved until hours before the deadline. Even though the deadline was met, Standard & Poor's issued the first-ever downgrade of long-term U.S. credit. That, in turn, led to a 635-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average the next day. The International Monetary Fund estimated last month that U.S. budget disputes, like the 2011 showdown, can slow annual growth by up to 0.5 percentage points in other parts of the world.

• 1995-96 government shutdown. The S&P 500 fell 3.8% during the government shutdown period that ran from mid-December 1995 to early January 1996. The good news is stocks quickly rebounded after the government got back to work, rising 10.5% in the subsequent month.

• Debt ceiling fight in summer 2011. Stocks took a big hit despite Congress' last-minute deal announced by President Obama on July 31. The damage from political dysfunction was already done. A credit-rating agency, put the USA's triple-A rating on "negative watch" on July 13, to the actual downgrade from S & P on Aug. 5 and through the Aug. 10 low, the Dow tumbled 1,700 points, or nearly 14%. The Dow didn't make back those losses until five months later.

• 'Fiscal cliff' fears December 2012 -  After Obama won a second term, Wall Street shifted its focus to the automatic government cuts and tax hikes, dubbed the "fiscal cliff," that were looming at year's end 2012. From the Dec. 18 high to the Dec. 28 low, the Dow fell more than 400 points, or 3.1%. But after Congress averted the cliff and softened the fiscal blow with a Jan. 1, 2013, deal, the Dow soared more than 300 points on the first trading day of 2013, wiping out all its losses.

According to estimates, if a shutdown occurs, stocks will likely suffer just a "temporary setback," as they did in 1995-96 and the recent fiscal-cliff fight. However, a default and adverse credit event for the U.S. could be "immeasurably more disruptive," more akin to 2011's debt-ceiling fight.

Nothing has changed between 2011 and 2013 that bolsters confidence in the ability of the United States Congress to behave differently.

Stock market crashes of 1929, 1987, and 2008 all occurred in October, which is coincidental, but another harbinger that lurks on the horizon. Traditionally, investors breathe a little easier when the first of November rolls around, although this coming October could feel a bit longer than usual with a full 23 days of trading, the most possible for the month.

What it means for Indian stock Markets?

During the last Debt Ceiling issue in US in August 2011, the Dow Jones plunge more than 15% in 1 month period, which had created corrections in all the markets in the world.

CNX Nifty the benchmark index of Indian stock market also plunge from the levels of around 5500 to 4700 in the month of August 2011 before closing the month around 5000 levels. Nifty also corrected a whopping 10% for the month.

On 1st October trading session following changes where absorb in Open Interest in Index:
Provisional Data

PUTS                                                               CALLS
5400 PE:  + 1015000                                       5900 CE:  + 280000
5500 PE:  + 400000                                         6000 CE:  + 340000
5600 PE:  + 600000                                         6100 CE:  + 400000
5700 PE:  + 700000                                         6200 CE:  + 330000

Total PUT OI Change: 4500000                                 CALL OI Change: 2300000

Current Month Nifty Futures OI: + 590000

The PCR OI for the current month stands at 1.25 levels

From the above data it is indicative that the Puts are being bought for the Hedge with slight increase in PUT volatility.

Technically also a close below 5720 – 5750 levels on closing basis on Cash Nifty will open the downside risk to 5350 levels in coming weeks.           

So theme here is be invested but hedge (protect) yourself from downside.

We believe every dip towards 5350 – 5500 levels should be used to add stocks to your portfolio for long term.

Shaurya Mehta - CEO, Metcon Finance Ltd.
Jagrut Shah - Research Analyst, Metcon Finance Ltd.

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Tuesday, 30 October 2012

Deciphering RBI's Monetary Policy - 30th October 2012

Metcon Finance's Take on the RBI's Monetary Policy Announcement
Tuesday, 30th October, 2012
Mumbai, India

Today the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the CRR by 25 bps to 4.25% and left traders, investors and analysts disappointed with no change in the RBI’s interest rate (Repo Rate) at 8%. While the Equity & Currency markets have not seen this in good light, we at Metcon Finance are analyzing Governor Subbarao’s statement probably more carefully than we ever have.

He mentioned that inflation will continue to be sticky at 7-8% which will be mainly driven by supply-side constraints and high commodity prices. He said that the RBI expects commodity rates to continue to remain high and probably even inch up, which we believe is an indication of a high likelihood of further easing by Japan/ECB/China along with the US FED’s QE3. As the US Presidential elections take place next week, it is only obvious and absolutely necessary that we also understand the RBI’s as well as GoI’s view with respect to the same. After speaking to Wealth managers, Portfolio Managers for Institutions as well as HNI’s, we understand that markets would cheer Governor Mitt Romney’s victory over President Barack Obama as the latter has, as felt by many economists across the United States, failed to revive the American economy and consequently also dented the progress of various nations in strengthening their respective economies.

The signalling by RBI Governor Subbarao that the commodity prices will be sticky also points to strong American Equity markets till the end of 2012, where we expect the S&P 500 to make new highs and consequently Nifty to touch 6100 levels. However after touching the new high, we expect that between January and March we may witness a 6-10% correction in the American Equity markets which may lead to a fall also in the Indian Equity Markets by 7-10%.We expect the Nifty to find support between 5520 and 5750. Subbarao mentioned that we can expect to see some easing in the Monetary policy between January & March, which we believe would be a time where either American & European markets correct or core inflation in India eases to sub 5% levels or both.

On the policies and economic front, we expect the Indian Government to outperform people’s expectations, especially in the Infrastructure, Telecom, SME & Mining segments. The Cabinet reshuffling and appointment of younger and more vibrant leaders points at a training mode of Rahul Gandhi's favourites for 18 months, the duration remaining for the 2014 National General elections. According to a recent poll by CNN-IBN, people would prefer Rahul Gandhi over Manmohan Singh as the Congress' Prime Ministerial candidate, and the reshuffling on Sunday only confirms the similarity in the voters' views and the Congress' Top Masterminds.

Coming to the Indian Rupee, it is again beginning to see some weakness after jumping nearly 10% in 5 weeks. However, we are of the opinion that the US Dollar has strong resistance between 54.30 and 55.50 and the UPA Government's newly found aggression in implementing policies, change in stance of the RBI gradually towards growth, lower Oil prices and change in investor sentiment will help the Rupee become stable at 50-52 levels in the next 2-3 months.

The above views indicate a fairly bullish stance maintained by us in the short-to-medium term, however, we do not rule out the possibility of Nifty falling to 5250, in case our assumptions fall short or in case another speed bump comes up in Europe’s path of recovery.

Shaurya Mehta
Metcon Finance Ltd.

Saturday, 19 May 2012

Have the World Markets got Facebooked?

Have the World Markets got 
“$104 Billion”! That is the Valuation which the Social Networking Giant “Facebook” has received after it decided to go public. Facebook has got listed on the NASDAQ on Friday 18th May 2012 under the symbol “FB”.

The Menlo Park, California-based company has managed to sell 421.2 million shares, up from 337.4 million shares it previously said it would offer at the upper limit of its price band of $34-$38 which was actually an increase from $28-$35 on growing demand for the Social Network’s shares. The IPO was oversubscribed on the very first day and hence the company pushed the price up on the IPO’s second day thereby creating a technology company with a historic IPO valuation at 25x of its revenues.

At $16 billion, Facebook has managed to become the largest Tech IPO ever and the 7th largest IPO in the World.

Big Question – So what does this have to do with the World markets?

The whopping $16 billion IPO of Facebook, will not only permanently engage $16 billion of liquidity from the Equities market but also actually absorb over $150 billion of liquidity from the Derivatives market. Hence, a permanent shortage of $16 billion from the Equities market and over $150 billion in the Futures Derivatives market as brokers require only 5-15% of margin for Derivatives.

Can this get a little freakier?

To be oversubscribed on the 2nd day itself, we at Metcon Finance assume that the IPO would have been subscribed around 20 times by the time it closed. (Dealbook reported 25 times in Asia, our estimates are conservative) This means that over $300 billion was required to be locked in for a week. Now how do you, as an Institutional Investor bring in that much of liquidity when that is invested in various regions of the world including the US stocks & commodities? Find the answer below.

The recent fall in the Global Stock Markets for e.g. the NASDAQ, the German DAX, the French CAC, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, the Indian Nifty, the Japanese Nikkei and major global indices has ranged between 8-10% only in the month of May, which comprises of only 14 trading sessions till now. While some analysts pointed out to lack of visibility in the revenue of Facebook, the oversubscription to the Social Giant’s IPO proves that many investors and clients saw value in buying a part of the network that they or 900 million other users become a part of every day, week or month. And $300 billion translates into more than $2 trillion and in May itself, global markets have lost roughly $4 trillion in market cap.

While we do not want to underestimate the impact of the European crisis, we do believe that the oversubscription required investments in US Dollars and hence the demand for the currency increased, leading to investors pulling out of investments made abroad. This in turn led to a sudden fall in share prices and a spike in the Greenback. In short, we believe that the Facebook IPO is also a significant reason for many individual stocks and indices falling in the last 2 weeks across US, Europe and countries such as India, China, HK, South Korea among others as Global markets take cues from each other.

However, we believe that once the listing gets done, we will see liquidity coming back to the markets as investors would have been allotted the shares of the company, leading to stocks and global indices recovering, the US dollar correcting and oil prices increasing.
Our analysis above is backed by historical data of the 3 Largest IPOs in US History – Visa, Enel SpA and General Motors. We analyzed the behavior of the NASDAQ before, on and after the day of listing of these 3 Stocks.

 #1 VISA – Visa announced on February 25, 2008 that it would go ahead with an IPO of 50% of its shares on March 18, 2008. Visa sold 406 million shares at US$44 per share ($2 above the high end of the expected $37–42 pricing range), raising US$17.9 billion in the largest initial public offering in U.S. history.

On March 20, 2008, the IPO underwriters (including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs & Co., Banc of America Securities LLC, Citi, HSBC, Merrill Lynch & Co., UBS Investment Bank and Wachovia Securities) exercised their overallotment option, purchasing an additional 40.6 million shares, bringing Visa's total IPO share count to 446.6 million, and bringing the total proceeds to US$19.1 billion. Visa was expected to debut at a price of $37 to $42 per share, but there was enough initial interest to price the deal at $44 on Mar. 18. On Mar. 19, Visa, under the stock ticker "V," opened on the New York Stock Exchange at 59.50 per share, and finished the session 29% above the offering price, at 56.86.

During the time frame of January 15th 2008 to 17th March 2008 till the IPO and listing process was going on, the NASDAQ fell from 2382 to 2177 in a time frame of around 35 days which is 205 points or -8.6%! After the IPO, the index moved from 2177 to 2522 an increase of +15.85% in a span of just two months as liquidity returned to other stocks and Futures & Options in the market.

Co-incidence? Or is the effect of liquidity being released back into markets?

#2 ENEL SpA – This Italian power company was publicly listed on the New York Stock Exchange and in Europe after the Italian Government liberalized the power industry in 1999. Enel SpA’s IPO date debuted on November 01, 1999 and got a valuation of $16.45 billion making it the largest IPO till Visa’s IPO in 2008.

With the range span from mid-September 1999 to mid-October 1999, the NASDAQ fell almost 200 points from 2868 – 2670. After the IPO, the company got listed and within two months the Nasdaq composite Index surged to +57.49%.

While such a spike up is definitely not just because of liquidity emerging post the Enel SpA IPO but it definitely may have been a contributing factor, wouldn’t it?

#3 General Motors – On July 10, 2009, with financing partially provided by the US Government, General Motors emerged from reorganization. GM was re-listed on the NYSE on November 17, 2010, setting the record for the 3rd largest IPO in US history with a value of $15.7 billion (of course, now that rank has been bagged by Facebook).
GM sold 478 million common shares at $33 each, raising $15.77 billion, as well as $4.35 billion in preferred shares, more than the initially planned $4 billion.

From 8th November to 17th November of 2010, when the IPO offer got completed, the NASDAQ fell from 2580 – 2469, i.e. -4.30% in a time frame of just 7 days. After the listing, the index moved from 2469 – 2769 an increase of +12.17% in a span of 2 months.

Coming back to the epic & celebrated IPO of Facebook and looking at it from the perspective of Visa, Enel SpA and GM, look what we have:

From the highs of 3134 on March 27, 2012, the NASDAQ has corrected by 10.2% to 2813 on May 17.

Now that Facebook has got listed, the $104 billion question: Do we have a 10%+ move soon coming up?

Shaurya Mehta
Metcon Finance Ltd.
Mumbai, India